Identifying efficient crime combating policies by VAR-estimations: The example of Switzerland

Current research suggests that the crime-combating instrument ”sentence probability” is more effective than ”sentence severity”. However, the focus of the simultaneous (or very short-run) impact of the law enforcement policy on crime impedes a comparison of these two instruments with respect to their long-term effectiveness. With Swiss data, we investigate the dynamic interrelationships between enforcement policy and crime and find that overall, sentence severity is just as effective as sentence probability (and even more effective for certain crimes). Furthermore, we show how the VAR-modeling technique can be exploited to conveniently distinguish between deterrence and incapacitation effects. Therefrom, concrete recommendations for a cost-effective crime-reduction policy can be derived. Patricia Funk & Peter Kugler, WWZ (Department of Economics), Petersgraben 51, CH-4003 Basel. Tel.: ++41 61 267 33 52, Fax: ++41 61 267 33 40, E-Mail: [email protected], [email protected]